The meter has been used since the 1960s to predict the rate of fire spread in eucalypt forests.

Under extreme fire danger conditions, the meter could under-predict rates of fire spread in forests by as much as three times. It is even less accurate when wind speeds are greater than 15km/h.

Project Vesta is a six-year project involving the lighting of over 100 experimental fires in dry eucalypt forests under dry summer conditions by CSIRO and Australia's Department of Conservation and Land Management, WA.

"Project Vesta results imply that firefighters have much less time to retreat from an approaching fire than suggested by conventional wisdom, particularly after a change in wind direction," says CSIRO's Jim Gould.

"We've circulated warnings about this as widely as possible in the fire fighting community."

Gould says that a second major concern is the speed at which a forest fire reaches its potential spread rate.

"A fire starting from a line greater than 100 meters long will burn at its potential rate of spread immediately," Gould says. "Before Project Vesta, it was thought that forest fires take time to reach their full potential spread rate."

Firefighters working on the flank of a fire may suddenly be faced with an intense and fast-moving fire if the wind changes direction and pushed the fire towards them.

Project Vesta is one of a number of scientific projects which have recently been assessed for cost-benefit by the Centre for International Economics.

The Centre found that Project Vesta has delivered benefits of over $400 million, at a benefit to cost ratio of 80 to 1. Anticipated benefits from the project include improved firefighter safety, reduced financial losses from wildfire, and more efficient allocation of firefighting resources.

The primary output from the Project Vesta research will be a National Fire Behaviour Prediction System for dry eucalypt forests. This is due for completion this year.

The new guidelines will assist management agencies to make better decisions about where, when and how often to undertake fuel reduction burns.

At a tactical level, the information will assist command centers to make better decisions about the positioning of firefighters and better public warning on bushfires approaching homes and community assets.

The results will assist the development of better early warning systems to reduce the health and safety risks to the public.

Gould says the findings have wide application in Australia, but in overseas countries with Mediterranean climates.

"There is a worldwide lack of knowledge about the behaviour of high intensity fires in dry forests," he says.

Project Vesta is being undertaken by CSIRO in collaboration with the West Australian Department of Conservation and Land Management (CALM). It is also being partly funded by other State land management agencies and Rural Fire Authorities across Australia. The Australasian Fire Authorities Council (AFAC) is providing a coordinating role. - By Nick Goldie

[Contact: Jim Gould, Mick Crowe, Nick Goldie]

08-Jan-2002