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Malaria Outbreak Can't Be Blamed On Global Warming

Recent increases in malaria in the East African Highlands cannot be attributed to global warming, researchers at the Department of Zoology at Oxford University have shown.

It has long been known that malaria in highland areas is hindered by low temperatures which limit the development of the parasites in the mosquito. Recent upsurges of malaria in these areas were believed to be due to increasing temperatures resulting from climate change, but little research had been done to confirm this claim.

Oxford zoologists, led by Dr. Simon Hay, Research Fellow in the Department of Zoology, set out to investigate long-term meteorological trends in four high-altitude sites in East Africa, where increases in malaria had been reported in the past two decades.

Examining mean temperature, rainfall and vapor pressure data from January 1911 to December 1995, the researchers found no evidence for climate trends over the last century, nor during the past two decades of malaria resurgence.

The researchers concluded that an increase in drug resistance is a more likely explanation for the observed increase in malaria.

Dr. Hay said, "We hope these findings will help focus attention back to the real and immediate problem of anti-malarial drug resistance, rather than potential future problems that climate change may bring."

The research project, funded by the Wellcome Trust, looked at data from western Kenya, south-western Uganda, southern Rwanda and northern Burundi.

The findings are published in Nature, "Climate Change and the resurgence of malaria in East African Highlands," by Simon I. Hay et al, 21 February 2002.

Other Oxford researchers involved in the project are David Rogers, Professor of Ecology and Fellow of Green College; Dr Sarah Randolph, Reader in Parasite Ecology at the Department of Zoology and Robert Snow, Professor of Tropical Public Health.

Within Oxford University's Department of Zoology, a group of world-class scientists are studying the population biology of infectious diseases using multi-disciplinary approaches.

The Trypanosomiasis and Land-use in Africa (TALA) research group and the Oxford Tick Research Group (OTRG) examine interactions between disease-carrying (i.e. vector) insects, ticks (which are second only to mosquitoes as vectors of diseases), hosts and pathogens.

Among other interests, the groups focus on the impact of climate and biotic factors on the vector-host interactions that determine the distribution, abundance and seasonal dynamics of both the vectors and the diseases that they transmit.

Disease transmission is studied at all levels, from genes to populations, using a variety of tools from field work to mathematical models to satellite imagery.

22-Feb-2002

 

 

 

 

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