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Fatal Crashes To Rise 155% By 2030 Among Older Drivers

Fatal car crashes are predicted to rise by 155 per cent among older drivers by 2030, finds research in Injury Prevention. Drivers aged 65 and older will account for one in four drivers involved in fatal crashes.

The researchers based their findings on the number of fatal car crashes for 1983, 1990, and 1995, representative nationwide surveys of annual mileage, population data, and trends in driving license applications.

The analysis was performed by S. Lyman, S. A. Ferguson, E. R. Braver and A. F. Williams of the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, Arlington, Virginia.

In 1995, older (65+) drivers accounted for 14 per cent of licensed drivers. But they accounted for less than 8 per cent of annual mileage and only 13 per cent of driver involved in fatal crashes.

But the proportion of licensed drivers among the older population, unlike that of younger drivers, has been rising steadily, to 75 per cent in 1995. And their driving mileage increased 44 per cent between 1983 and 1995.

During the same period, fatal crash involvement rates per capita among those aged 70 and above rose by over a third compared with younger drivers, among whom they fell by 4 per cent. Per mile driven, fatal crashes among those aged 75 and above were almost as high as those among 16 to 19 year olds.

The authors calculate that there will be a 39 per cent increase in the number of drivers involved in fatal car crashes overall, and a 34 per cent increase in drivers in non-fatal crashes between 1999 and 2030.

But the authors say that the number of elderly drivers will account for over half of the total projected increase in fatal car crashes, which will increase by 155 per cent among those aged 65+. And the number of elderly drivers involved in crashes reported by the police is expected to increase by 178 per cent by 2030.

The authors estimate that one in four fatal car crashes will involve older drivers by 2030, who will make up little more than a fifth of licensed drivers by that time.

The proportion of older drivers is growing at a faster rate than any other driving age groups, say the authors, because there are simply more of them. And they are increasingly keeping their licenses longer and clocking up more mileage.

But as people age, their eyesight and reaction times deteriorate and they are more vulnerable to the physical impact of a car crash and more likely to die as a result than younger drivers.

The authors do not advocate restrictions on license renewal among older people, but suggest that vehicle modifications might help, including seatbelt, airbag and dashboard design. They also point out that older drivers tend to be involved in a higher proportion of crashes at intersections, and that better road and traffic engineering might help to prevent this.

(Reference: Older driver involvements in police reported crashes and fatal crashes: trends and projections 2002; Injury Prevention 8:116-20.)

(Editor's Note: Full text of the article is available in PDF format at this URL.)

24-Jun-2002

 

 

 

 

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